Exits, 11/22/2024
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Put spread on Super Micro Computer (SMCI -2.75%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.33 on 11/15/2024; exited at a net credit of $0.17 on 11/18/2024. Loss: 48%.
Call spread on Super Micro Computer (SMCI -2.75%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.31 on 11/15/2024; exited at a net credit of $0.97 on 11/21/2024. Profit: 213%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, but you can see the latest performance update for our top names in last night’s post.
Since we started this Substack in December of 2022, our top ten names have returned 18.46% over the next six months, versus 12.7% for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY 0.54%↑).
Options
Our two exits were two haves of the same trade, which initially was a neutral bet on Supermicro moving strongly up or down this week. On Monday, we closed out the bearish half and bought more underlying shares of SMCI at $21.86. The stock closed Friday at $33.15.
The Beneish M-Score
The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model used to estimate the odds that a public company is manipulating its earnings. There’s an online calculator at Professor Beneish’s university, but it requires you to enter in a couple of dozen fields from a company’s filings to complete.
If I can get another 15 or 20 subscribers to the Portfolio Armor web app this year, I will pay my software developers to add a Beneish M-Score calculator to the site, where you just enter a company’s ticker symbol and it populates all the fields itself.
If You Are Concerned About Downside Risk
As a reminder, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below or aiming your iPhone camera at it.
