Exits, 11/29/2024
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD -0.95%↓). Bought for $1.70 on 11/12/2024; sold (half) for $6 on 11/25/2024. Profit: 253%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, but our core strategy of buying our top ten names, putting trailing stops of 15% to 20% trailing stops on them, and replacing them with current top names when we get stopped out, continues to perform well.
As you can see in that post, our top names have averaged returns of 18.57% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 12.72%. You can see an interactive version of the table above here, where you can click on each date and see a chart showing each of the holdings that week.
Options
Robinhood was both a Portfolio Armor top name and one of our year-end Trump trades. One minor regret this week is that we didn’t buy calls on another crypto-related top name, Iris Energy (IREN 0.00%↑). I bought shares of it two weeks ago, as part of our core strategy, and those shares are now up about 30%. But had we bought calls on it as we did with HOOD, we would have probably had another exit for a >200% this week.
The Beneish M-Score
The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model used to estimate the odds that a public company is manipulating its earnings. There’s an online calculator at Professor Beneish’s university, but it requires you to enter in a couple of dozen fields from a company’s filings to complete.
If I can get another 10 or 15 subscribers to the Portfolio Armor web app this year, I will pay my software developers to add a Beneish M-Score calculator to the site, where you just enter a company’s ticker symbol and it populates all the fields itself.
If You Are Concerned About Downside Risk
As a reminder, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below or aiming your iPhone camera at it.
