Exits, 11/3/2023
How we did on the trades we exited this week, and what we can learn from them.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. These are the trades I exited this week:
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options Trades
Put spread on AB InBev (BUD 1.36%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.38 on 10/30. Expired worthless. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Carvana (CVNA 7.40%↑). Entered at net debit of $0.47 on 11/2; expired worthless. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Wayfair (W 5.72%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.40 on 9/27; expired worthless. Loss: 100%.
Call on Wayfair (W 5.72%↑). Bought at $3.45 on 10/17; sold at $0.57 on 11/3. Loss: 83%.
Call spread on Encore Wire (WIRE 5.52%↑). Entered at a net debit of $2.20 on 7/14; exited at a net credit of $2.60 on 11/3. Profit: 18%.
Calls on Coursera (COUR 1.05%↑). Bought at $1.05 on 10/26; sold at $1.25 on 11/3. Profit: 19%.
Put spread on Weight Watchers (WW 4.43%↑). Entered a net debit of $0.24 on 11/2; exited at a net credit of $0.29 on 11/3. Profit: 21%.
Call on Hyatt (H 2.47%↑). Bought at $4 on 11/1; sold at $5 on 11/3. Profit: 25%.
Call spread on SoFi Technologies (SOFI 8.55%↑). Entered a net debit of $0.35 on 10/27; exited at net credit of $0.49 on 10/31. Profit: 40%.
Call spread on Sherman Williams (SHW 2.26%↑). Entered at a net debit of $4.25 on 10/23; exited at a net credit of $6 on 11/3. Profit: 41%.
Call spread on FuboTV (FUBO 10.95%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.27 on 11/2; exited at a net credit of $0.42 on 11/3. Profit: 56%.
Call spread on DexCom (DXCM -2.60%↓). Entered at a net debit of $1.80 on 10/26; exited at a net credit of $3 on 10/30. Profit: 67%.
Call spread on Avis (CAR 11.69%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.25 on 11/1; exited at a net credit of $2.35 on 11/2. Profit: 88%.
Call spread on Block (SQ -4.11%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.45 on 11/2; exited at a net credit of $0.95 on 11/3. Profit: 122%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, as our core strategy continues to perform well. As I noted in Thursday’s top names post, 13 out of 17 of our weekly top ten names cohorts from this year have outperformed the market over the next six months.
Options Trades
Let’s start with our losses. The first one, the put spread on AB InBev (BUD 1.36%↑), sparked this post, in which I detailed a new, composite score I would use for trades going forward. BUD would have had a composite score of 0, or neutral, and I wouldn’t have placed a trade on it either way.
That composite score wouldn’t have prevented the second listed 100% loss, on the Carvana put spread, at least not at current weightings I’m giving to each metric (Though I’m going to adjust those going forward based on their respective performance). Two additional comments on Carvana though: 1) With sharper trading by me, this one could have still been profitable, as CVNA traded below the break even of the put spread at Friday’s open. 2) Carvana is a unique, risk-on stock, and this past week’s shift to risk-on (probably sparked in part by the Israel-Hamas war not spreading) was a big tailwind for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it trades above 50 by the end of the year (but if it does, I’ll think about shorting it again).
The composite score would have kept us out of the two Wayfair losses, though interestingly, it might have put us into Wayfair this week, which would have had a composite score of +3. And betting on Wayfair this week, would have been a winning trade.
The risk-on melt-up this week enabled us to get out of some older trades for small profits, but it also cut into the gains on short trades like our put spread on Weight Watchers (WW 4.43%↑). In the pre-market on Friday, that was looking like it would be a >90% gain, and instead we exited with a 21% gain.
Overall, I’m optimistic about this new composite score, and I’m looking forward to applying it to next week’s trades.
Enjoy your weekend.