Exits, 3/14/2025
How we did on the trades we exited this week.
Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting in July, 2024, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited this week.
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
None
Options
Calls on Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 4.58%↑). Bought for $0.85 on 3/6/2025; expired worthless on 3/14/2025. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Intuitive Machines (LUNR 7.76%↑). Bought for $1.50 on 3/6/2025; expired worthless on 3/14/2025. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 0.64%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.32 on 2/28/2025; expired worthless on 3/14/2025. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Futu Holdings (FUTU 7.66%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.50 on 2/28/2025; exited at a net credit of $0.55 on 3/14/2025. Profit: 10%.
Calls on Spotify (SPOT 0.00%↑). Bought for $2.40 on 3/10/2025; sold (half) for $6 on 3/11/2025. Profit: 150%.
Calls on Spotify (SPOT 0.00%↑). Bought for $2.40 on 3/10/2025; sold (second half) for $6 on 3/11/2025. Profit: 150%
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
No exits this week, but since we started this Substack in December of 2022, our top names have averaged returns of 19.06% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 12.14%
Options
Exits 1 and 2 were short term, speculative trades on Portfolio Armor top names that didn’t work, but 2 failed for a more interesting reason: Intuitive Machines lost contact with its rover which landed on the moon last week. It may have landed on its side. We have another trade open on LUNR, so hopefully they land another rover successfully before it expires.
Exit 3 was an earnings trade on an undervalued (Chartmill valuation rating = 9), oversold (RSI = 26) retailer, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). As we saw with Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 0.00%↑) last week, that strategy doesn’t seem to work in this market.
Exit 4 was an earnings trade on a Portfolio Armor top name, Futu Holdings (FUTU). This one could have been a 100% to 200% gain, if I had adjusted my exit price before today’s open. The company reported earnings before the open on Thursday, and rallied in the pre-market, before taking with the market later in the day. At that point, I assumed my call spread would expire worthless, so I didn’t adjust my exit order down from a limit of $1.89 (the max gain here was $2, on a $117-$119 spread, which would have been a 300% profit from our $0.50 entry). Had I lowered my exit price to $1 to $1.50, I might have gotten a fill when the stock hit $120 intraday on Friday.
Exit 5 was a short term, speculative trade on a Portfolio Armor top name, Spotify (SPOT), buying $530 strike, March 14 calls on it for $2.40 when it fell to about $489 on Monday. My normal approach with these is to try to sell half of my calls with a gain of 100% or 200%, if possible, and then hold out for a bigger gain with the rest. This time, I got gun shy and sold the second half the same day (Tuesday) at $6, for another gain of 150%. Portfolio Armor subscriber L.B. did better, selling for $12 on Wednesday, for a ~400% gain. SPOT closed at $574.79 on Friday. Had we had waited until Friday afternoon, we could have sold our calls for $44, for a 1,733% gain.
Lessons learned, and we’ll look to improve our approach going forward.
Limiting Your Downside Risk
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