How Much Longer Will The Ukraine War Last?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia's largest mercenary group, gives his estimates.

Yvgeny Prigozhin (left) being interviewed by Russian war correspondent Semyon Pegov.

"Putin's Chef" Speaks

Yvgeny Prigozhin got the moniker "Putin's chef" from his close ties to the Russian president and the catering companies and restaurants he owns. He's become better known in recent years as the founder of Wagner PMC (Private Military Company), probably the largest mercenary army in the world today. His men have been fighting in one of the largest current battles in the Ukraine recently, in the vicinity of Bakhmut. 

His connection to Wagner PMC became public knowledge last year with this video of him recruiting prisoners from a Russian penal colony. 

One notable comment by Prigozhin in that video is that his troops' ammunition expenditure in Ukraine was 2.5x that of the Russians at Stalingrad during World War II. 

Prigozhin sat for his first interview last week, during which he gave his estimates for how long the Ukraine War would last: if the mission is to control all of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, 1.5 to 2 years, and 3 years if it's to advance to the Dnieper River. 

Toward the end of that clip, Prigozhin mentions "La Manche", which is the French term for the English Channel. He quips that he has a plan to get there too. 

Below is a translation of the full interview via @RWAPodcast. Following that, we'll close with a brief note about today's CPI release. 

Pegov's first question: what's up in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut?

Prigozhin: Bakhmut has become a center of gravity for the Ukrainian army. Our task in the Bakhmut meat grinder is to get as many Ukrainian troops in there as possible to free up our forces elsewhere. 

"WG" will be WarGonzo (Pegov), "P" will be Prigozhin. 

WG: Are we close to a full blockade of Bakhmut?

P: It's too early to say that we're "close", there are many routes in & out of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are well-prepared and know all the routes, our troops are working on an envelopment, frontal assaults on large cities don't work 

WG: I noticed that your media resources, as opposed to the RU MOD, are very slow about reporting their successes. Are there military reasons for this or is it personal preference?

P: As my soldiers say: happiness likes silence. First we'll take Bakhmut, then tell you about it. 

P: We don't show our men's faces so the Ukrainian army doesn't see them. If they see them, they'll all survive, because death is also afraid of our soldiers. 

WG: You said that Wagner PMC has stopped recruiting convicts. What's up with that?

P: The former convicts are fighting & they're fighting well. There were some problems to solve but we have a main principle: we're open and honest with them, they're open and honest with us. 

P: If you signed the contract, you go do your work. The casualty rate among the convicts is the same as with all of our units. Sometimes the convicts fight braver than they should and value their lives less than a soldier should. 

P: The convicts don't only serve in the infantry, but also in other branches & support roles, like all of our other employees. We had a specific procedure for recruiting convicts; it has run its course for organizational reasons. They may be used in other ways. 

WG: Some people claim that convicts are used as cannon fodder to be used in the most difficult areas. Is there some truth to this or do all Wagner soldiers fight in the same conditions? 

P: What is "cannon fodder"? Brainless biomass whose task it is to get killed by artillery. If an infantryman dies in combat, he's not cannon fodder - he's an infantryman who did his job on the front. There is not a single man among the convicts who could be called "cannon fodder" 

WG: How are the convict recruits prepared for combat?

P: First they get a month of training, 20 hours a day, with 4 hours of sleep. Including live fire exercises, from dawn til dusk. 5-6 hours a day are theoretical, the rest is physical training. 

WG: In any case, it's probably easier to breathe in a trench than in prison.

P: I've been to prison and I can confirm that, indeed, it is better to be in a trench than in prison. 

WG: There is a whole mythology about Wagner PMC. It appears to have it's own ideology or codex. What's the ideology of Wagner PMC?

P: The ideology of Wagner is to be a collective with near-perfect command & control, where every commander listens to his fighters on the ground. 

P: Our ideology is that there every fighter can rise up, that you are a man with lots of adrenaline who is needed by his collective and his country, and therefore, when the motherland called, the lads flew right over wearing tropical uniforms & joined the fight within two days. 

WG: I know many people from your ranks, some of them are close friends. I have noticed a very specific attitude towards death among them. Phrases like "being a warrior is to live forever" that became popular in the army came from the PMC. Is there a cult of contempt for death? 

P: I would call it a cynical attitude towards death.

(Soldier in the background: "Death is not the end, it's the beginning of something else")

P: We'll all go to hell, but in hell we'll be the best.

(Soldier in the background: "Absolutely!" 

WG: You've quoted the movie ["The best in hell"]. I saw your name in the credits. Was it based on several operations, like e.g. Mariupol...

P: No, it's all a depiction of Popasnaya. 

WG: About the hammers. There is a lot of talk about them. I'll be honest, I'm ambivalent about this, I agree that traitors must be found and punished...

P: I have no idea what you're talking about. I just know that the hammer is a pretty tool and symbol. 

WG: You're a person who often enough openly criticizes our military leadership. How bad is the situation with our troops really? 

P: I'm not criticizing anyone. The most important thing for the army is for the higher-ups to sometimes *see* the lower ranks. The soldiers would be surprised and very happy if the generals visited the trenches more often. 

P: When I visit my lads, they know that I'm not some estranged figure, but that I'm with them. All commanders of Wagner PMC are former shock troopers who earned the right to command through their work. 

WG: There are rumors that among the soldiers of Wagner PMC there is a certain amount of people with far-right views, who enjoy Third Reich aesthetics, etc. Are there far right radicals here? 

P: Every man who joins Wagner PMC must have enough courage, adrenaline and balls to go into the fire and kill the enemy. If you need soft guys with pretty nails who go to church every week, that's not about Wagner PMC. 

P: Wagner values your qualities as a soldier, your devotion to your comrades, your balls and brains. If you like the Third Reich, if you have gang tattoos, we don't give a shit about that. We only care about how you treat your brothers-in-arms & how you carry yourself in battle. 

WG: But what's your personal opinion?

P: My opinion is that everyone masturbates the way he likes to. The important thing is that he fulfills his duty and goes forward. 

WG: For how long are we here?

P: Let's start with the basics. There haven't been wars like this since 1945. When I compare Soledar and Stalingrad, I haven't been to Stalingrad personally, but it was *hard* to raise your head. The amount of shells being fired is even higher. 

P: The important thing for us is that the enemy has more casualties than we do. What have we done so far? We grabbed a piece of the Black Sea coast, we secured a land corridor to Crimea. Now we have to focus on Donbass. We have to secure the DPR and LPR. 

P: How did the Special Military Operation start? The Ukrainians started misbehaving, did an illegal revolution, which may be their right, but they attacked Russians, & started a genocide. We managed to stop the war in 2014 & for 8 years... I don't know why we waited for 8 years. 

P: Now back to your question, how long will it take. If we need to reach the Dnieper, about 3 years. If just Donbass, then about 1,5-2 more years of work. If we need to reach the English Channel, I have a plan for that, too. 

P: But if we decide to go for the English Channel, we need to become like we were in 1941-1945, and, of course, we need to give the Ukrainians their fair share, maybe France, Italy, Bulgaria. Because we will suffer more than enough here with them. 

WG: Many people are talking about your political ambitions. How would you describe these?

P: I don't need any political parties. I have no political ambitions. All my guys say the same: when this story here in Ukraine ends, send us back to Africa, it's so nice there. 

WG: Who are the guys in the background here?

P: The military leadership of Wagner. We can't show them, like I said, otherwise death will run away. That wouldn't be fair.

//

Interview's over. That's about it. 

CPI Day Game Plan

Today is when we get the next big CPI print. Our basic game plan will be this: if inflation comes in hotter than expected, and the market drops, we'll look to exit one or two of our current bearish positions; if the reverse happens, and the market pops, we'll look to bet against another weak name that rallies hard. As always, I'll email an alert as soon as I make a trade in either direction.