What Comes Next

Let's ask the man who predicted the COVID crash, the crypto bear market, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Two Crashes And A War

In early 2020, I wrote a couple of posts warning investors to hedge in light of the novel coronavirus. The first I wrote before the crash started, 

Portfolio Armor @PortfolioArmor

Coronavirus, Modern Monetary Theory, And Hedging Market Risk. $SPY

seekingalpha.comBuying Umbrellas When It’s Sunny Out: Hedging Market Risk Via Optimal Puts On SPYOver the last week, market observers have highlighted risks ranging from the coronavirus outbreak to fiscal and monetary conditions.

And the second I wrote a couple of weeks later, 

Portfolio Armor @PortfolioArmor

The Second-Best Time To Immunize Your Portfolio. #Covid-19 $SPY

seekingalpha.comTime To Immunize Your Portfolio Against The Coronavirus With Optimal SPY PutsAfter the worst day for stocks in two years, there have been calls to buy the dip. You may want to consider hedging against further declines.

In that second one, I linked to Anatoly Karlin's post ("Corona Will Kill Millions And Crater The World Economy"). By the end of 2020, Covid was estimated to have killed nearly 2.5 million globally, and, according to a Statista estimate, caused a 4.5% contraction in global GDP. 

In early 2022, Karlin also predicted that Russia would invade the Ukraine:

Portfolio Armor @PortfolioArmor

Why Russia 🇷🇺 may invade Ukraine 🇺🇦 after all. @akarlin0 estimates an 85% chance of invasion. Might be worth adding downside protection here just in case. $SPY $QQQ zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-1…

zerohedge.comWhy Russia May Invade Ukraine After AllA Russian journalist estimates an 85% chance Russia will invade and likely annex significant parts of Ukraine.

So as in the old E.F. Hutton commercials, when Karlin talks, we listen. 

Your Chance To Ask

Karlin has offered to answer questions submitted by me, focusing mainly on the Ukraine War and crypto, so if you have questions for him related to those topics, let me know and I'll try to include some of them. 

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