12 Comments
May 22, 2023Liked by Portfolio Armor

FYI, someone suggested I get the Substack app for alerts when I am out & about & it did send me a notification when you post! So I can not worry about missing your trade alerts!

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That's good to hear. Someone else was asking about alerts and I wasn't aware the app provided them.

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May 22, 2023Liked by Portfolio Armor

It filled and dropped over 75%, thoughts on it going back up? I did see news about predicting a $165 price though it needs to go up to hit that. Like you mentioned last week on FTCH, which is practically gone, the social data might want to not rely on so heavily? I am like you, I don't like losing $...

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It looks like overall, there is a consistent edge from LikeFolio's social data, but overtime that might mean we're successful on, say, 58% of social data trades--it's not going to be an overwhelming edge. Part of the issue there is that even when its successful in predicting earnings beats, like it was with ONON last week, the market reaction doesn't always follow. E.g., in the case of ONON, the positive news was apparently already priced in.

One nice thing about DKS here is that the stock has been sliding going into earnings, so that shouldn't be the case here. That is, the stock should rise if there's an earnings beat, but of course, we'll see.

So maybe the best approach here might be to put a little less money to work in our social data trades for now.

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If it dropped 75% shortly after buying the spread, I would assume it's just because the bid/ask widened out. Most option quotes after hours mean nothing as there is no accurate mid price until market opens back up.

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Dicks now is Zero value. at this point do they ever come back?

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May 23, 2023Liked by Portfolio Armor

Should have a closing mid value of 0.18 for the 135-136 spread right now. Earnings report was good (I didn't dig too deep into it though). I know the Target trade from last week came in nicely. They come in all the time just may have to wait.

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Yes, social data correctly predicted DKS would beat earnings, but the stock hasn't responded the way we want. That happens sometimes, unfortunately.

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That depends on what the stock does, but here our options expire in two days, so we'll need the stock to move in our direction pretty quickly.

As BCJ said nearby, the earnings report was good, but that doesn't always translate to the stock movement we want in the near term.

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May 22, 2023·edited May 22, 2023

I can't get this order to fill, when I placed it, mid point was 0.20, and it sat, so I checked and it was 0.23, so I changed it and its sitting and now its back up to 0.25.

Suggestions? I missed both of the EXP & PLCE trades due to them not being successful, so any help is appreciated.

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I would try putting in $0.25 as a limit and seeing what happens. I'd probably take this if I could get in below $0.30 today.

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May 22, 2023·edited May 22, 2023Liked by Portfolio Armor

its been flopping between $0.23 & $0.25 and even with lower stock price it still won't take when its $0.23, so fingers crossed!

(It took!)

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