Dids/Pexels
This Week’s Trade Exits
As soon as I exit a trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. These are the trades I exited this week:
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
Affirm Holdings (AFRM 0.00%↑). Bought for $38.14 on 3/1/2024; stopped out at $34.31 on 3/14/2024. Loss: 10%.
Meta Platforms (META 0.00%↑). Bought for $197.70 on 3/17/2023; sold for $497.12 on 3/13/2024. Profit: 151%.
Options Trades
Call spread on s Exact Sciences (EXAS 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.10 on 2/20/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Put spread on Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.18 on 2/21/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Tucows (TCX 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.25 on 2/21/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Put spread on Tucows (TCX 0.00%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.25 on 2/22/2024; puts assigned on 3/15/2024. Loss: TDB (I’m going to sell the stock next week).
Call spread on Cracker Barrell (CBRL 0.00%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1 on 2/26/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Big Lots (BIG 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.60 on 3/4/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Put spread on Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.15 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Dollar Tree (DLTR 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.45 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Calls on Fossil (FOSL 0.00%↑). Entered at $0.10 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on OnOn Running (ONON 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.24 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Purple Innovation (PRPL 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.20 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Call spread on Ulta Beauty (ULTA 0.00%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.15 on 3/11/2024; expired worthless on 3/15/2024. Loss: 100%.
Put spread on Allbirds (BIRD -0.91%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.20 on 3/11/2024; exited at a net credit of $0.23 on 3/13/2024. Profit: 15%.
Puts on Grove (GROV -8.56%↓). Entered at $0.60 on 3/4/2024; exited at $0.70 at 3/12/2024. Profit: 17%.
Put spread on Kohl’s (KSS -8.14%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.24 on 3/11/2024; Exited at a net credit of $0.35 on 3/12/2024. Profit: 46%.
Put spread on Adobe ( ADBE -3.60%↓). Entered at a net debit of $1.10 on 3/11/2024; exited at a net credit of $2.44 on 3/15/2024. Profit: 128%.
Call spread on Turtle Beach (HEAR 3.11%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.30 on 3/11/2024; Exited at a net debit of $0.95 on 3/14/2024. Profit: 217%.
Comments
Stocks or Exchange Traded Products
Our core strategy of buying equal dollar amounts of the Portfolio Armor web app’s top ten names, putting trailing stops of 10%-15% on them, and replacing them with names from the current week’s top ten when we get stopped out of a position continues to perform well. In our Top Names post on Thursday, we shared the 6-month performance of our top ten names from September 7th; here is the 6-month performance of our top ten names from September 14th:
When I started this Substack, I priced it at $30 per month, because that’s what we were charging for our top ten names on the Portfolio Armor iPhone app at the time.
Options Trades
March 15th was a big options expiration day, so we’ve got losers here from earnings trades we entered as far back as February 20th here. That said, the trades from this week could have gone better. Broadly speaking, we need to do two things better here on our earnings trades:
Pick winners more consistently.
Make more money on our winners.
Regarding 1., our spreadsheet tracking our ten metrics should help with that somewhat. Returns this week in particular have deflated a few of our metrics.
Regarding 2., this is the second week in a row that we had a trade exit return >200%. We need more of those. I think the way to get them is to go further out of the money on trades on our more liquid names. All else equal, this might lower our win rate slightly, but I think it will more than make up for itself by turning some ~120% gains into ~220% gains. We’ll see.